EURNOK, GBPSEK, USDNOK, USDSGD & USDZAR - Trades for 2012

EURNOK

EURNOK has been in 7.95-7.525 range for a whole 2011. While it looks that the upper bound gets lower from May.2011, this range may be traded by selling rallys between 7.8-7.9 zone. Although risk/reward ratio may not be quite there considering this as a long-term trade (several days/weeks), fundamental expectations that Euro should not gain a significant strength in a near future may confirm a slightly higher risk from a technical angle (potential spikes that may trigger stops). 

GBPSEK

GBPSEK shows some divergence pointing to some losses for Pound. There is a potential to trade in both directions as long as price remains on the upside within the ascending channel. Problem with this pair is a relatively short range given the price for a trade entry...

USDNOK

For a whole 2011 USDNOK has gone nowhere!!  It started with 6.00 and finished up this year almost at a pip with testing a bottom at 5.2 back at the end of April.

Moving forward to 2012 – I will put a short order to 6.00 with a stop @ 6.150 given SMA and RSI confirmation (%K and %D line crossing on a daily and weekly and RSI not going over 58 on a weekly chart). It would be reasonable to expect retesting of 5.5 area and potentially 2011 low @ 5.2 given no major financial collapse happens within next 3 months!?

USDSGD

This pair has been in a steady decline since April.20012 up until Sep.2011. September breakthrough up to 1.310 area has stalled in the last three months consolidating in the orange circled area on a day chart.

Long term trend remains bearish as long as price remain below 1.3600 (weekly chart ).

On a smaller scale (daily) look for a short around 1.305 with a stop @ Oct high (1.3150).

On the other side, if this price break confirms its breakout towards a bullish trend, watch for a crossing of %K and %D lines upwards on a daily chart confirmed by RSI that should stay over 42.

I would look for a weekly breakout price closure above 1.315 to expose 1.36 (weekly 200 day SMA).

USDZAR

USDZAR recent rally from Aug.2011 has temporary run out of steam @ 8.5. Bullish trend remains intact and temporary weaknesses should be bought as long as weekly closures are remaining above 200SMA. Potential upside 8.75, 9.25 and finally 2009 high @ 10.5.

0 Hedge

Instead of my notes, I am passing some latest from Zero Hedge blog ...excellent source of info for those who do not already know about its existence (if any)!
Here is the link... enjoy :)

AUDCAD

Long @ 1.0290 with stop @ 1.026. Look for a descending channel and MACD/Stoch values...

EURO 1999-2011 - RIP!

                                   

http://soundcloud.com/jonny-slide/jonny-slide-star-circle

Golden Triangle

21/11/2011 - On which side is going to brake?

Update @ Tue. 06/12/2011 - will convert short to a long from 1700 area....

AUDUSD

Expect some additional weakness down to .99-0.9850 before a short rebound to 200SMA. Fundamentals are pointing to a "risk-off" on a longer term while watching for a rebounds for a short opportunities. Option that Aussie falls of the cliff is also not excluded following a possible stock-market meltdown so cautions has to be applied in all scenarios...

AUDNZD (cont.)

As noted in a previous post, weekly closure has not been able to break 1.322 – in fact, it stopped right on that point, to a pip!!

So what it may tell us for a week to come (and a little bit further)?

If we take a look at weekly chart, 1.322 shows as a significant resistance point with two highs from 2010. These highs have been topped in Dec.2010 with a pullback by the end of a month driving to a all time highs at March.2011. I have a dose of doubt that those highs will be reached again, at least not by the end of 2011 but 1.34-1.35 level remains to be tested. Short term, I’m favoring a smaller pullback maybe even to test 1.28 level before jumping higher. The other elements that are pointing to a correction pattern within next 2-3 weeks are:

a)      High reading in Stochastic Oscillator that historically shows reading of ~90 weekly are leading to a sharp corrections of >300 pips. So while pattern remains bullish, there is a high probability for a temporary pullback on this pair.

b)      RSI readings on 1, 4 and 8 hour are showing divergence.

c) While NZD has almost traced-back all gains vs. USD from Oct. 2011, AUD still has some space to cover that may be another indicator to its short-term losses against Kiwi.

AUDNZD hit 1.3222 4x this week!!!

It remains to be seen if this break will continue...If so than 1.322 will be next support line going up to 1.365 - 1.375 before the end of 2011 while closure under 1.322 may suggest a "fake breakthrough". 

Current position: short @ 1.3245 with a tight stop @ 1.328

31.Oct-14.Nov.2011 - Trading results

Testing results of a current strategy (Micro account):

 

Combined Account Statement

Statement Period:     from Oct 30, 2011 4:00:00 PM through Nov 14, 2011 7:16:24 PM
  


Symbol    Volume    Date    Sold    Bought    Gross P/L    Comm    Rollover    Net P/L

EUR/CAD    1,000    10/27/11 8:28 AM    1.40404                        

                                   10/31/11 2:53 AM         1.40039    3.66    -0.10    0.02    3.58

EUR/CAD    1,000    10/27/11 8:33 AM    1.40436                        

                                   10/31/11 2:54 AM         1.40062    3.75    -0.10    0.02    3.67

EUR/CAD    1,000    10/27/11 8:56 AM    1.40551                        

                                   11/9/11 12:08 PM         1.38407    21.06    -0.20    0.11    20.97

EUR/CAD    1,000    10/27/11 9:12 AM    1.40669                        

                                    11/9/11 12:07 PM         1.38428    22.01    -0.20    0.11    21.92

EUR/CAD    1,000    10/27/11 9:32 AM    1.40718                        

                                    11/9/11 12:08 PM         1.38417    22.60    -0.20    0.11    22.51

EUR/CAD    1,000    10/27/11 11:21 AM    1.41160                        

                                    11/9/11 4:43 PM         1.38666    24.37    -0.10    0.11    24.38

EUR/CAD    1,000    10/28/11 11:00 AM    1.41053                        

                                    11/9/11 4:43 PM         1.38671    23.27    -0.10    0.10    23.27

EUR/USD    1,000    10/31/11 4:41 AM    1.39847                        

                                  10/31/11 9:09 AM         1.39905    -0.58    -0.20    0.00    -0.78

EUR/USD    1,000    10/31/11 9:11 AM         1.39938                   

                                   10/31/11 10:14 AM    1.39638         -3.00    -0.20    0.00    -3.20

XAU/USD    1          10/31/11 8:31 PM      1,721.40                        

                                    11/1/11 3:08 AM         1,709.60    11.80    0.00    0.00    11.80

AUD/NZD    1,000    11/1/11 5:07 AM         1.29748                   

                                    11/1/11 8:08 AM    1.29560         -1.49    -0.20    0.00    -1.69

EUR/CAD    1,000    11/1/11 7:53 AM    1.38539                        

                                    11/7/11 6:45 PM         1.39504    -9.52    -0.10    0.07    -9.55

XAU/USD    1           11/1/11 12:19 PM    1,708.55                        

                                    11/2/11 3:07 AM         1,736.57    -28.02    0.00    0.00    -28.02

GBP/USD    1,000      11/1/11 12:35 PM    1.59900                        

                                    11/7/11 5:27 AM         1.59923    -0.23    -0.20    -0.12    -0.55

EUR/CAD    1,000     11/1/11 12:45 PM    1.39966                        

                                    11/2/11 6:45 PM         1.39378    5.78    -0.10    0.04    5.72

AUD/NZD    1,000    11/2/11 4:12 AM    1.30497                        

                                     11/2/11 7:15 AM         1.30787    -2.30    -0.20    0.00    -2.50

EUR/CAD    1,000     11/2/11 4:40 AM    1.40123                        

                                    11/7/11 3:33 PM         1.39619    4.97    -0.10    0.05    4.92

AUD/CAD    1,000    11/3/11 8:52 AM    1.04916                        

                                    11/4/11 6:13 AM         1.05854    -9.21    -0.20    -0.14    -9.55

GBP/USD    1,000     11/3/11 2:03 PM    1.60450                        

                                   11/9/11 2:39 PM         1.59131    13.19    0.00    -0.08    13.11

XAG/USD    50         11/4/11 12:40 AM    34.58                        

                                   11/4/11 3:06 AM         34.28    15.00    0.00    0.00    15.00

EUR/CAD    1,000    11/4/11 4:10 AM    1.39974                        

                                   11/7/11 5:25 AM         1.39648    3.20    -0.20    0.01    3.01

EUR/CAD    1,000    11/4/11 6:00 AM    1.40481                        

                                    11/7/11 6:45 PM         1.39504    9.63    -0.10    0.02    9.55

EUR/CAD    1,000    11/4/11 6:01 AM    1.40782                        

                                   11/9/11 1:14 PM         1.38144    25.95    -0.20    0.03    25.78

EUR/CAD    1,000    11/4/11 6:49 AM    1.40859                        

                                   11/9/11 4:43 PM         1.38671    21.38    -0.10    0.03    21.31

GBP/CAD    1,000    11/6/11 8:37 PM    1.63317                        

                                   11/8/11 5:50 PM         1.62427    8.82    0.00    0.02    8.84

GBP/USD    1,000    11/7/11 6:10 AM    1.60451                        

                                   11/9/11 4:41 PM         1.59257    11.94    -0.10    -0.04    11.80

EUR/CAD    1,000    11/7/11 4:01 PM         1.39601                   

                                    1/7/11 6:49 PM    1.39469         -1.30    0.00    -0.03    -1.33

EUR/CAD    1,000    11/8/11 5:56 AM    1.39922                        

                                    11/9/11 11:06 AM         1.38277    16.16    -0.20    0.01    15.97

GBP/USD    2,000    11/8/11 1:54 PM    1.61154                        

                                   11/9/11 4:41 PM         1.59257    37.94    -0.20    -0.04    37.70

AUD/USD    1,000    11/9/11 2:10 AM         1.03451                   

                                    11/9/11 4:22 AM    1.02802         -6.49    0.00    0.00      -6.49

AUD/USD    1,000    11/9/11 4:05 AM         1.03162                   

                                    11/9/11 4:30 AM    1.02656         -5.06    0.00    0.00    -5.06

GBP/CAD    1,000    11/9/11 6:05 AM    1.63058                        

                                    11/9/11 4:43 PM         1.62996    0.61    0.00    0.00    0.61

AUD/USD    1,000    11/9/11 7:24 PM    1.01196                        

                                    11/9/11 7:32 PM         1.01293    -0.97    0.00    0.00    -0.97

GBP/CAD    1,000    11/10/11 1:26 AM    1.63179                        

                                   11/10/11 10:59 AM         1.62244    9.15    0.00    0.00    9.15

AUD/NZD    1,000    11/10/11 11:26 AM    1.30625                        

                                    11/11/11 2:54 AM         1.30460    1.28    -0.10    0.00    1.18

GBP/CAD    1,000    11/10/11 11:35 AM         1.62240                   

                                   11/10/11 2:19 PM    1.61959         -2.76    -0.20    0.00    -2.96

GBP/CAD    1,000    11/10/11 5:19 PM         1.61926                   

                                   11/11/11 2:13 AM    1.62564         6.25    0.00    0.00    6.25

XAU/USD    1          11/10/11 8:47 PM          1,763.25                        

                                   11/11/11 11:43 AM         1,781.25    -18.00   0.00    0.00    -18.00

AUD/USD    1,000    11/11/11 9:10 AM    1.01805                        

                                    11/14/11 5:06 AM         1.02524    -7.19    -0.10    -0.17    -7.46

GBP/USD    1,000    11/11/11 10:20 AM    1.60159                        

                                  11/14/11 3:27 AM         1.60072    0.87    0.00    -0.02    0.85

GBP/USD    1,000    11/11/11 3:37 PM    1.60680                        

                                   11/14/11 5:06 AM         1.59350    13.30    -0.10    -0.02    13.18

EUR/USD    1,000    11/13/11 5:01 PM    1.38014                        

                                   11/14/11 5:06 AM         1.36841    11.73    -0.20    0.00    11.53

GBP/CAD    1,000    11/14/11 1:08 AM    1.63174                        

                                   11/14/11 4:30 AM         1.62070    10.85    0.00    0.00    10.85

GBPNZD (Nov.2011)

There is a potential sell opportunity within 2.04 - 2.06 area. While general trend is bearish, a channel congestion as well as recent upwards from the end of August followed as general risk aversion may lead to a long term breaking of this bearish 3 year trend. As always, follow the oscillators movement for a confirmation of the entering positions. This trade may work only on a long (daily) term scale since current market uncertainties will very likely erase all tight stops.

EURCAD

Remaining short from 1.41. It looks like the most reliable trade now... Short setup on Gold from 1,766 with target @ 1,740. Short AUDCAD from 1.0492, stop @ 1.1053 target open. These are trades that I will be mostly focused in Nov. Will update if anything interesting comes to mind. News and rumors are still driving a market... Update @ 04.11.11 (end of week): AUDCAD got stopped with 90 pip loss. EURCAD still very active ...

AUDNZD update (19.Oct.2011)

AUDNZD ascending channel remains intact. Any correction within 1.275-1.28 are should be used as long entry with stop in 1.26, target 1.32. Also day and lower interval charts are showing the overbuy territory so long entry should be followed with RSI around 50 with tendency on lower intervals (4 and 1 hour) to go higher.

GBPJPY (Oct.2011)

Here is one pair that has just caught my attention (that I have never actually traded)... Long term weekly chart shows price inability to break bellow 118 level since the beginning of 2009 and currently sits at 122.

Daily chart shows that current price has hit 50 day EMA where some short term resistance may move price down towards 121 area.

While medium term pattern shows potential bullish channel, short term shows a price divergence that is clearly visible on 4h and 60 min chart.

Short term trading plan (description related to a 60 min chart): Sell within first 2 hours of European trade session if price holds between 122-122.50 and RSI stays within descending RSI line. Stay short as long as Stochastic (slow) slope is moving downwards and RSI remains between 45-50. Change position to long if lower ascending channel is reached (cca. 121) and previous 2 conditions are satisfied. Longer bias is for price to go north... Happy trading :) Note: Similar pattern is observed in AUDJPY and NZDJPY pairs but I would be reluctant to go short @ Monday due to a recent jump in risk. If commodities are down and risk is aversion kicks-in that these two pairs may provide a even better opportunity for short (correction) considering a recent price spike...

AUDNZD

After 1.235 support that prevented further AUD decline vs. Kiwi, price has rebounded up from Sep.19 and reached first significant resistance @ 1.285. 300 pip advance from 04.Oct may find some correction down to 1.27 but upward trend is expected to continue.

Weekly pattern shows that a long term ascending channel remains intact and from purely technical angle, the expectation is to go higher to test 2011 highs. First weekly resistance point is around 1.32 where, if price fails to brake, would create a head-and-shoulder pattern opening further weakness in this pair.

Short term. - as said earlier, I will be a buyer at around 1.27-.275 area following a confirmation on RSI and Stoch (slow) indicators. Also, for further upside to hold, I am expecting 200EMA to hold within 50 pips range on 60 min chart. Current setup (60min) shows a slight divergence on RSI that may be a very short term sell signal with target of 100 pips of the current price @ 1.2845, but will see if this trade still holds after the beginning of euro-session opening. I am looking to at least one hit at the top of 1.285 to hold before placing that trade.

Gold vs. AUDUSD

Check out a correlation in a price movement between AUDUSD and Gold ... It looks like gold is lagging slightly Aussie meaning that it may be used as the additional (risk) indicator as long as relation remains valid.

AU short @ 1664 (27.09.11)

Possible breakthrough on intersection of 200 & 50 EMA line (15 min chart).
Stop above daily high....

Braking of 50 EMA would signal a further drop in AU while closing above 1680 would open a further retracement to a 200 EMA (cca. 1720).

EURGBP and EURCAD (21.09.11)

Closing on the upper triangle area where shorts may be convenient given risk ratio. If line holds, that would be a 4th attempt to brake it since Sep.9, opening a high probability to test Sep. low and maybe to go down even further. While BOE is hinting a possible stimulus to UK economy, a whole EUR  picture is far worst than potential impact that £ printing may have on this pair. I am personally favoring a downside on this pair with potential resistance areas @ .877, .883 and .888 (Aug. high).
Current position: short from .874
Shorts pending @ .8765 and .8797
Stop placed @ .883

Congestion between 50 and 200 SMA on 60 min chart may signal a top in place and move downwards. Daily closure above 200SMA may signal a reversal upwards. I am currently fading C$ data from 1.3652 and 1.3685 (if it gets hit) - stop at 1.3727.

Updated EURCAD chart as of 17:23 GMT - first stop triggered, next one is @ 1.3769:

This run should be due to a correction... leaving one lot still in place while having 75 pip loss on the first one.
EURGBP short open from 0.8765 with stop @ 0.8814 (open target). First short stopped with 50 pip loss.
Update2: I've just noticed that EURCAD advance got stopped at 38.2% fibo-retracement, just at my stop point!!! 

AUDNZD

In case you’ve been wondering why I am posting AUDNZD analysis so frequently -

The reason I am banging at the same AUDNZD drum is that is hitting (now) a very important channel support line starting back to 2004!!! Yes, 2004!!! Its upper channel has been hit 3 times (as you can see on a weekly chart)

Back to a current situation - Aussie is expected to reach 1.235 or hit lower vs. NZD while confirming a divergence on a daily chart to enter a long.

Fake push through 50day SMA negated change of a trend as it remains “down”.

Check out a weekly range mentioned in my previous posts at http://tinyurl.com/3os5l55  and even mid-July analysis notes in http://tinyurl.com/5vgaad6 (that are still valid) for a clues on critical prices and weekly up trend support line.

So the bottom line is that I would stay away from long entry given current climate on the market and until "double-bottom" is confirmed on a daily chart that is some 100 pips away from a current price. Will follow up on these thoughts later in a week if/when anything significant happens...

Las/thist week update

Haven't posted anything last week due to a massive volatility (read: CB's interventions, rumors etc.) so no reliable technicals have crossed my mind. I did entered in few scalps, mostly versus Euro and gold that worked out pretty well but nothing significant beside it. I'll be back when any mid-term planning gives me a reason...
Currently I am short EUR vs. CAD and USD with huge stop area (1.35 for Cad trade and 1.3734 in USD trade)...don't have a good short-term feelin' 'bout that but will see (entered late in a game :( )

EURCAD 700 pip trade

It's not very often to execute an almost perfect trade....here is the one that happened recently (opened 26/08 and closed today):

EURUSD Weekly

Weekly closure is to remain above 1.37 in order for bullish pattern to remain intact.

Current price has just hit 200 day MA line that I am expecting to hold for this week (a few hours left). I am biased toward price correction next week towards 1.41-.42 level technically that remains to be seen how US market is about to open at Monday. 

Hourly chart shows that pair is heavily oversold but absence of divergence may suggest that bottom may be bellow 1.37 (rather within 1.363 - .37).

AUDNZD - Sep.2011

Latest Aussie advancement against NZD may confirm that 1.23 bottom from Aug.09 is confirmed. Bullish pattern is unfolding as long as daily closure above 1.26 is preserved (breakout of bearish channel line).

Hi all, I've been away from trading (hollidays) so nothing new has been posted within last 2 weeks. In a mean time, I got (via twitter) this interesting strategy from Boris Schlossberg: How To Pick Tops and Bottoms in FX that I want to share with whoever may be interested:

Here is a short outline from video:
1. Let the price go through at least 1 Ideally 2 levels
2. Buy/Sell in Zones Bellow/Above 50 or 00 Once the Move has been made
3. Buy market in zones 35-40 or 75-80
4. Sell market in zones 60-65 and 20-25
5. Limit @ +20, Stop @ -30

Good luck in trading,

sasalex_fx

How to chicken-out from a perfect set-up?!

The following is a classic example of not following some simple rules in trading and how to miss a perfectly valid trade!
Last night XAGUSD graph showed a huge divergence in RSI giving away an excellent setup for a short trade following a major bonanza in gold purchasing. On top of everything, there was a significant gap in price in relation with 200 moving average price (yellow line on graph).
I’ve entered a short trade at 43.95 at opening of Asian session hoping that price may unfold downwards. Within first hour of trade price went down to 43.70 where I decided to move stop-loss at break-even (+2). I got kicked out of that trade pretty soon and decided to go to sleep without setting-up a new trade. I thought that new day session may be quite volatile and that my potential stop a little higher than previous day-high would be wiped-away with a reasonable amount of certainty.
Another think that may be a relaxing circumstance for me not stay in a trade is fact that not very often Asia session drives to a major turnaround - its market usually follow the previous (mad) flow or at least float in a "range" ... at least that were my thought, voices of "reasoning" of not to follow my indicators and very strong gut instinct on it!

I do not need to explain how that whole setup had unfolded – just look at the graph!
It doesn’t matter how many times one has to convince himself/herself to trust your trade – same mistakes may be repeated in no time. I am keeping this one in quite significant place with another one happened recently with drop in USD against Swiss Franc. That one had a perfect setup, almost immaculate execution at 0.71 (almost at a rock-bottom) but part of (short) trade remained in game wiping-out roughly 30% of my potential gain! But that’s another story....
Be well and trade safe,

Sasalex_fx

18.08.2011 - US$ trade plan

1) Short Swiss @ .800, stop @ 0.835. Divergence on 60 min RSI may signal that correction from recent US$ may be over. Risk-reward ratio is at least 1:5.

There is a similar scenario across other US$ crosses such are AUD, NZD, GBP... Will wait for a US trading session to see if risk is off.

Aug.17. Notes

AUDNZD August range is 330 pips. I will be a buyer at 1.25 and seller @ 1.265 with 2:1 risk ratio.

EURCHF:
After sharp Asian session correction swiss is floating at 200 day average line (EURCHF) at the beginning of euro-trading. After entering short at 1.1271 got stopped out at break-even. I am sitting on a sideline for now since there is not clear direction. Will see what US opening will make...Area of next "short" interest is 1.136.

Loonie:
Inability to break a triangle resistance line exposes 0.97 200 EMA line as potential support. RSI (240 min chart) is showing no divergence from parity point that leaves a risk open for another leg up to parity test.

RSI (60 min chart) provides a clue about recent move downwards from 1.00 where divergence was clearly shown:

Update (13:15 GMT): Entered long @ 0.9783 with stop 0.9743, target 0.995.
Update (14:43 GMT): Stopped at break-even

GBPUSD (13:15 GMT)
Entered short at 1.6512 spike - divergence on 60 min chart. Very tight stop just above day high:

Update (14:35 GMT): Stopped at break-even, next short attempt will be @ 1.6545 (if hit) from July high. After that there is no significant resistance point until 1.67 area that is May high...
Update (14:50 GMT): New short hit and already in -20 pip. Stop has to be above 1.66 given market conditions...
Update (16:45 GMT): Closed short just above BE, before it turned back to 1.6565! It looks that there are still too many people short cable (as David Rodriguez noted that on DailyFX last night)!
Update (17:20 GMT): Closed day with 8 trades, 4 over 5 pips in plus and 4 BE translating into +125 pips.

EURUSD triangle

Euro has to close above 1.45 on daily to resume bullish advance - otherwise 1.41 is target from a recent advance.

AUDNZD wedge on 240 min chart

Potential long @ 1.252...
Update: Some great ideas on AUDNZD scalping opportunities by MC "Scalp Master" Michael Boutros from DailyFX.

Swiss week

A story of this week is Swiss!!! Today's SNB intervention didn't do much to trigger a Swiss sell-off, just to temporary slow it down. Fortunately my trading was on a good side of the market netting total of 1230 pips on long Swiss trade (against USD and EUR). Only one position hat a target price (US) hitting 0.71 and that one was a major gainer. Unfortunately I have allowed others to go back some 300 each, some even generating loss last night during SNB announcement. But can't complain... ;)
I am still Swiss long with a small mix of currencies (EUR, USD, AUD and NZD) that I intend to leave to test yesterdays low with exception of Euro position where I am expecting to go to a close of parity price.
Other technical - I do not have any special opinion since it's not a good practice to stick just to technical in this messy market. I am rather going with a "fundamentals" until some major turnover doesn't change my opinion.
Best in trading,
sasalex_fx

Week of 01-05/08/11

AUDNZD has broken 1.25 line and next areas of interest are 1.22 and 1.20 where possible turnaround may happen. There would probably have to be some significant news from either side that may turn sentiment around and ‘till then – we are remaining in downtrend….
US$ front – not that many surprises… $ agony continues in dead race between Euro and greenbuck who will give-up first. It looks like 2-horse race that are at the end of their lives and running a last race ‘till first drops dead. My bet remains on Euro since there is too much of “green” garbage around to be easy to just drop it. Also throughout the last century, greenbuck showed some amazing resilience in tough times, always being able to return from dead – Euro hast to show that ability ;)
Swiss-Monster is still doing what it did the best in last 5 years and that is growing against pretty much against any currency out there! The only cure against Swiss is that Switzerland drops its currency entirely and adopts the Euro, a move that is not likely to happen in foreseeable future!
My trading in last 3 days: miserable overnight EURUSD scalping attempts (3x50pips down, 25 up), good gold scalps (2 positive, one negative, one BE), Swiss shorts (+350 pips in total, AUDNZD -150pips on long attempts and few other BE’s that leaves me in total of roughly +100pips…not bad since I’ve tried to do a few things that I usually do not attempt (overnight Asia trades in volatile markets – not very smart move!).
I can not see any set-up as of now worth mentioning since it looks like major market mover remains (bad) news. I will stay with scalps as opportunities come to me… ;)
Best of luck in trading,

Sasalex_fx

Update: EURCAD short setup 1.383-386 - graph is attached here.

Week review - good luck in next ...!

I’ve skipped Thursday posting since nothing significant that I haven’t said before has happened. After morning losses, I’ve managed to finish a day break-even (+3pips!). Friday – my AUDNZD long got stopped @1.252 leaving me thinking about a second option (from my previous posts) that AUD may test 1.22 area if channel support becomes resistance. There is small resistance in 1.24 but do not expect it to hold considering kiwi monstrous July performance...
I have also tested some overnight scalp strategies on euro that failed miserably so lesson learn: do not scalp while sleeping!
As mentioned earlier, much of the technicals may be flushed down in toilet due to inability of US putting down any sustainable plan considering its debt. There may be carnage at Monday and Tuesday on all markets but that remains to be seen. I’ve left no open trades over the weekend.
Good luck everyone - we need it @ Monday.

AUDNZD brakes above 1.26

AUDNZD broke above 1.26 area that is probably to be tested today/tomorrow before going higher. Next support is 1.25 which, if broken, gives up a space for testing 1.225 and finally 1.20. As long as uptrend channel doesn’t get broken (and closed bellow – see weekly chart) I am bullish on this par. Potential long entries are 1.26 and 1.255 on a pullback.

There are two CADJPY long entries triggered last night, 82.6 and 82.4 with one at 82.2 still waiting. Stops are just above 82...

AUDUSD is entering an interesting phase. I have drawn 2 channel supports in a graph below, one with orange support line and the other (current) with green resistance line.

I won’t go into details about time frames when they were/are applicable since that is quite obvious from a graph. What I found interesting is that orange and green line are intersecting at almost exact point (1) where price were braking in its direction (small correction on a daily chart before pushing higher from 1.06 through resistance line @ 1.078). 1.078-1.08 is serving as a very strong support line now…
Current brake above 1.10, if sustained should make either orange line as new support or will pull back a bit to stay within green one (resistance). Yellow area is what I consider a “twilight zone” where some scalping may be placed but no major directional decision should be made while price remain in this area.

XAUUSD - place where fibo aligns with critical price points (2011).
Look like 1.64 is a place for short (also 5th wave point for those in love with Elliot).

Of course, everything drops down in a sewer if WH gang doesn't reach agreement by Aug.02!
Update @ 22:12 AUDCAD:-25(x2), CADJPY:-50(x2), XAG:-22, XAU:+20; Total: -152pips
Quite bad day! :(