I’ve skipped Thursday posting since nothing significant that I haven’t said before has happened. After morning losses, I’ve managed to finish a day break-even (+3pips!). Friday – my AUDNZD long got stopped @1.252 leaving me thinking about a second option (from my previous posts) that AUD may test 1.22 area if channel support becomes resistance. There is small resistance in 1.24 but do not expect it to hold considering kiwi monstrous July performance...
I have also tested some overnight scalp strategies on euro that failed miserably so lesson learn: do not scalp while sleeping!
As mentioned earlier, much of the technicals may be flushed down in toilet due to inability of US putting down any sustainable plan considering its debt. There may be carnage at Monday and Tuesday on all markets but that remains to be seen. I’ve left no open trades over the weekend.
Good luck everyone - we need it @ Monday.
Saturday, 30 July 2011
Wednesday, 27 July 2011
AUDNZD brakes above 1.26
AUDNZD broke above 1.26 area that is probably to be tested today/tomorrow before going higher. Next support is 1.25 which, if broken, gives up a space for testing 1.225 and finally 1.20. As long as uptrend channel doesn’t get broken (and closed bellow – see weekly chart) I am bullish on this par. Potential long entries are 1.26 and 1.255 on a pullback.
There are two CADJPY long entries triggered last night, 82.6 and 82.4 with one at 82.2 still waiting. Stops are just above 82...
AUDUSD is entering an interesting phase. I have drawn 2 channel supports in a graph below, one with orange support line and the other (current) with green resistance line.
I won’t go into details about time frames when they were/are applicable since that is quite obvious from a graph. What I found interesting is that orange and green line are intersecting at almost exact point (1) where price were braking in its direction (small correction on a daily chart before pushing higher from 1.06 through resistance line @ 1.078). 1.078-1.08 is serving as a very strong support line now…
Current brake above 1.10, if sustained should make either orange line as new support or will pull back a bit to stay within green one (resistance). Yellow area is what I consider a “twilight zone” where some scalping may be placed but no major directional decision should be made while price remain in this area.
XAUUSD - place where fibo aligns with critical price points (2011).
Look like 1.64 is a place for short (also 5th wave point for those in love with Elliot).
Of course, everything drops down in a sewer if WH gang doesn't reach agreement by Aug.02!
Update @ 22:12 AUDCAD:-25(x2), CADJPY:-50(x2), XAG:-22, XAU:+20; Total: -152pips
Quite bad day! :(
There are two CADJPY long entries triggered last night, 82.6 and 82.4 with one at 82.2 still waiting. Stops are just above 82...
AUDUSD is entering an interesting phase. I have drawn 2 channel supports in a graph below, one with orange support line and the other (current) with green resistance line.
I won’t go into details about time frames when they were/are applicable since that is quite obvious from a graph. What I found interesting is that orange and green line are intersecting at almost exact point (1) where price were braking in its direction (small correction on a daily chart before pushing higher from 1.06 through resistance line @ 1.078). 1.078-1.08 is serving as a very strong support line now…
Current brake above 1.10, if sustained should make either orange line as new support or will pull back a bit to stay within green one (resistance). Yellow area is what I consider a “twilight zone” where some scalping may be placed but no major directional decision should be made while price remain in this area.
XAUUSD - place where fibo aligns with critical price points (2011).
Look like 1.64 is a place for short (also 5th wave point for those in love with Elliot).
Update @ 22:12 AUDCAD:-25(x2), CADJPY:-50(x2), XAG:-22, XAU:+20; Total: -152pips
Quite bad day! :(
Tuesday, 26 July 2011
26.07 Daily Notes
Not so good trading in Asia session...AUD/CAD: -22, GBP/USD -30 and NZD/JPY -8 pips (3 entries).
News of a day is GBP better than horrible Gross Domestic Product data that pushes £ upwards (I guess any news rather than catastrophic will have a positive impact on related currency) while US$ is still floating downwards in a slow-death manner. It remains to be seen if Obama and nasty wolves will come up with a $ cure or they will move with a treatments as pharmaceuticals do (make the patients alive but not heal them - once healed they are no more customers).
All pointers so far are saying that agony will be preserved at least until next elections since last thing Republicans want is to Obama administration to take any credit on potential (attempt of) US economy recovery while Dems do not want to hit hard on their voting base with severe spending cuts as well as "hand that feeds both parties" by raising taxes.
Uncertainty ascending...
Update @ 21:30 - Got a small rebound in AUDNZD +12 NZDJPY +34 (2 lots) to make day total about -15 pips. Allowed 2 additional NZDJPY lots to break even looking for a further dip in NZD that didn't happen! Better luck next time...
AUDCAD weekly still holds new support line formed from 12/06/2010 through 12/03/11 low. Next level of resistance is 1.055 area while 100MVA line (day chart) may serve as a short term support/stop.
News of a day is GBP better than horrible Gross Domestic Product data that pushes £ upwards (I guess any news rather than catastrophic will have a positive impact on related currency) while US$ is still floating downwards in a slow-death manner. It remains to be seen if Obama and nasty wolves will come up with a $ cure or they will move with a treatments as pharmaceuticals do (make the patients alive but not heal them - once healed they are no more customers).
All pointers so far are saying that agony will be preserved at least until next elections since last thing Republicans want is to Obama administration to take any credit on potential (attempt of) US economy recovery while Dems do not want to hit hard on their voting base with severe spending cuts as well as "hand that feeds both parties" by raising taxes.
Uncertainty ascending...
Update @ 21:30 - Got a small rebound in AUDNZD +12 NZDJPY +34 (2 lots) to make day total about -15 pips. Allowed 2 additional NZDJPY lots to break even looking for a further dip in NZD that didn't happen! Better luck next time...
AUDCAD weekly still holds new support line formed from 12/06/2010 through 12/03/11 low. Next level of resistance is 1.055 area while 100MVA line (day chart) may serve as a short term support/stop.
Monday, 25 July 2011
Monday notes...
Got out from the last NZDJPY at break-even. That pair was the only loosing trade yesterday so can’t complain!
I have a new AUDCAD short setup @ 1.0288 (former support line) for Asia opening with stop 22 pips above. I am expecting a continuation in Aussie weakness against CAD and will try to use a probable spike in price as the entry point. While 60 min chart is giving some upside momentum, 240 min one is still in descending mode.
AUDNZD is still in range trading. Got a pretty nice spike upwards in Asia opening but will stick with a plan to a larger uptrend with this pair.
I am still staying away from $ pairs since any ridiculous news may swing price in any direction....
Happy trading :)
I have a new AUDCAD short setup @ 1.0288 (former support line) for Asia opening with stop 22 pips above. I am expecting a continuation in Aussie weakness against CAD and will try to use a probable spike in price as the entry point. While 60 min chart is giving some upside momentum, 240 min one is still in descending mode.
AUDNZD is still in range trading. Got a pretty nice spike upwards in Asia opening but will stick with a plan to a larger uptrend with this pair.
I am still staying away from $ pairs since any ridiculous news may swing price in any direction....
Happy trading :)
Sunday, 24 July 2011
Kiwis, kiwis...more kiwis
The latest negotiations about green$ have broke down, so let’s see what upcoming week may bring to us.
There is a common consensus that stock market is set to break down a bit further, partially because profit news but more due to a whole uncertainty about direction for next 12 (or more) months in US economy an lack of vision and compromise in White House powers. That brings us to:
KIWI! My fruit of a week :)
Last week’s comments on AUDNZD are still valid – I have placed a small long order @ 1.2510 (20 pips still to get there) with stop @ 1.24328, anticipating that there may be another leg down in 1.245-1.23 area. Risk/profit ratio is way to big to miss that one now – hence the bet. Will move stop loss at break-even if price reaches 1.2525.
Let’s see some other kiwi crosses
NZDUSD:
I have drafted 2 recent (broken) triangles and fibo-sequence, that I use ONLY to illustrate potential moves when it's matching with high/low price levels (in this case - it does). It looks like that there is a very small updown space before it turns negative, bat cautioning is necessary in this wild market conditions!
Potential short @ 0.87 area...will review it at Monday euro-trading session
NZDJPY
Have short pending @ 67.82 with 45 pips stop. Expecting a pullback to at least 65.50...
NZDCHF
Here I am bringing 2 graphs only, so you can draw your own conclusion:
That would be pretty much all kiwi-related...
Another pair worth mentioning is CADCHF. Watch out during next week if support between 849-842 holds. It has a good potential to break above .900 but it will depend if current support dosn't give up!
Other pairs of interest:
EURGBP: 60 min chart shows the uptrend channel as long as 0.877 holds. There may be some scalping opportunities around 0.885 but I am on a side for now....
I also have EURCAD short pending @ 1.3675 ...and that's pretty much all for now.
Again, will wait to see what will happen with US$ crosses!
Happy trading week everyone.
ps. While I was writing this latest blog, gold topped a new all time high @ 1,620.00!!!!!!
1st. Update @ 25.07.11 11:30GMT+1
Long CAD positions are working good(short EUR/CAD, AUD/CAD, GBP/CAD). NZD/JPY and AUDNZD are still fighting around break-even. Moving stops on CAD positions to break-even....
2nd. Update @ 25.07.11 17:36GMT+1
Closed trades:
EURCAD (short): +106 pips
GBPCAD (short): +111 pips
AUDCAD (short): +37 pips
NZDJPY (short)(2 lots): -20 and -13 pips respectively
Still open (as of now):
NZDJPY (short): -13 pips
AUDNZD (long): +23 pips
...so CAD longs worked out pretty well while kiwi is still not giving up!
There is a common consensus that stock market is set to break down a bit further, partially because profit news but more due to a whole uncertainty about direction for next 12 (or more) months in US economy an lack of vision and compromise in White House powers. That brings us to:
KIWI! My fruit of a week :)
Last week’s comments on AUDNZD are still valid – I have placed a small long order @ 1.2510 (20 pips still to get there) with stop @ 1.24328, anticipating that there may be another leg down in 1.245-1.23 area. Risk/profit ratio is way to big to miss that one now – hence the bet. Will move stop loss at break-even if price reaches 1.2525.
Let’s see some other kiwi crosses
NZDUSD:
I have drafted 2 recent (broken) triangles and fibo-sequence, that I use ONLY to illustrate potential moves when it's matching with high/low price levels (in this case - it does). It looks like that there is a very small updown space before it turns negative, bat cautioning is necessary in this wild market conditions!
NZDJPY
Have short pending @ 67.82 with 45 pips stop. Expecting a pullback to at least 65.50...
NZDCHF
Here I am bringing 2 graphs only, so you can draw your own conclusion:
That would be pretty much all kiwi-related...
Another pair worth mentioning is CADCHF. Watch out during next week if support between 849-842 holds. It has a good potential to break above .900 but it will depend if current support dosn't give up!
Other pairs of interest:
EURGBP: 60 min chart shows the uptrend channel as long as 0.877 holds. There may be some scalping opportunities around 0.885 but I am on a side for now....
I also have EURCAD short pending @ 1.3675 ...and that's pretty much all for now.
Again, will wait to see what will happen with US$ crosses!
Happy trading week everyone.
ps. While I was writing this latest blog, gold topped a new all time high @ 1,620.00!!!!!!
1st. Update @ 25.07.11 11:30GMT+1
Long CAD positions are working good(short EUR/CAD, AUD/CAD, GBP/CAD). NZD/JPY and AUDNZD are still fighting around break-even. Moving stops on CAD positions to break-even....
2nd. Update @ 25.07.11 17:36GMT+1
Closed trades:
EURCAD (short): +106 pips
GBPCAD (short): +111 pips
AUDCAD (short): +37 pips
NZDJPY (short)(2 lots): -20 and -13 pips respectively
Still open (as of now):
NZDJPY (short): -13 pips
AUDNZD (long): +23 pips
...so CAD longs worked out pretty well while kiwi is still not giving up!
Saturday, 23 July 2011
Instead of FX analysis....
I've been preparing some graphs and analysis at Friday night, but decided to abandon any new post until any resolution is reached in US Congress. I am pretty confident that news will be a major price driver at market opening and for following 24 hours of trading...
I have a small cable short leftover from Friday with a pretty good chance to hit a stop at market opening (if no positives came out from US).
Later...
sasalex_fx
R.I.P. Amy :(
I have a small cable short leftover from Friday with a pretty good chance to hit a stop at market opening (if no positives came out from US).
Later...
sasalex_fx
R.I.P. Amy :(
Thursday, 21 July 2011
Thursday.21.07.11
Nothing has changed within last 2 days – AUDNZD continuing its range of 100 pips that may be a sign of Kiwi-extortion or just another brake before going down to a 1.24 area. Staying on a side for now....
Yesterday’s FX market was marked with EU, ECB, Greece and other Euro-related trash-talk (read: throwing money in a bottomless pit) news causing Euro to rally up north. On its $ counterpart – it is yet to be seen on what kind of agreement will R&D reach: Go bankrupt now or later (euro style). Any delay in $ agony will cause USD to retrieve some primarily Euro-loss positions....will see....
Rare event: both $ and gold went south today!
Current trades: small kiwi short @ .8615 and gold long @ 1.591, stop 1.579,60
Happy trading :)
Tuesday, 19 July 2011
More on AUD, NZD, USD... (cont.)
AUDNZD has hit 1.25 today as forecasted in previous article. My guess is that slide should continue down to 1.24 area by the end of this week where some resistance may be expected. I may attempt to buy some Aussie depending primarily on SSD, RSI and 200MVA (weekly) line – will post my trade on twitter @ sasalex_fx.
Bellow is graph that shows price Kiwi and Aussie run vs. USD (day chart) that shows a significant Kiwi rebound vs. US$. A similar pattern is visible in mid-march when Kiwi went much lower than AUD and AUDNZD reached its most recent peak.
NZDUSD day chart shows kiwi reaching the upper-bound of its channel resistance. While current Asia-session may give opportunity to hit 0.86 level, current channel dating from a beginning of May.11 is convincing of a short term correction down to 0.83 levels. Break of this channel will negate strategy for going short Kiwi at 0.86 level where stops may be placed to anywhere between 1:2-1:6 ratio. This pullback may also act as a good indicator for at least short term correction in AUDNZD.
AUDUSD shows a “traveling path” within 3 channels where the most recent one may form the ending triangle. There are 3 (!) likely short term scenarios:
1) Triangle line gets broken (negating 2/3 triangle breaking “rule”) ending up in a channel support anywhere in 1.08-1.10 area
2) Aussie goes lower testing 1.040
As long as 100 moving average line does not get broken, I may dare to say that uptrend remains intact with quite reasonable expectations of short-term corrections.
Happy trading,
Sasalex_fx
Monday, 18 July 2011
Mid-July AUDNZD thoughts...
There is a significant unbalance in current AUD drop against NZD (1450 pips since 04/05/2011). If we look at a current individual performance of a pair against USD it’s notable that for a same period AUD dropped cca. 260 pips while NZD gained 630 pips. Even if we attempt to add “one for one” these numbers, a sum would come to about 890pips – about 560 pips differential from 1450 that experienced a drop in pretty much a straight manner!
Since my favorite “odd couple” (AUDNZD) have shown anything but “rational market behavior” (if such a term makes any sense at all) in last 2 years, where I got my fingers burned on about 3 out of 4 occasions, I will try to use my crystal ball and predict where this drop will end-up and what a potential pullout may look like?!
If we ignore a crash of autumn 2008, parallel lines may be drawn starting 13.12.07/15.07.10 at the bottom of a channel and 29.07.08/07.03.11. As you can notice from a chart bellow, the latest Aussie drop from 1.365 back in 10.May.11 is ending pretty soon at a support channel line (probably as soon as this week).
From that point, it’s reasonable to expect a smaller rebound up to 1.27-1.28 where 1.28 may act as a resistance (former support) line.
After a rebound, 2 scenarios may happen:
a) Testing a resistance channel line as part of a larger uptrend (bullish Aussie)
b) Break of a trend line and test of a major support at 1.22 area.
Short term:
While 240min chart RSI still shows no signs of divergence (1.300 high from a beginning of July still under no signs of treat), 60 min one shows a mild divergence.
One may enter a small “gamble" trade with a tight stop right now @ 1.2550 level (tight stop in a context of this pair means 50 pips!) while I would personally rather wait ‘till Wednesday to see if further decline of about 100 pips daily will happen. Note from a daily charts that first area of interest is 1.245 where two channels are colliding (current bearish and long term Aussie bullish).
Good luck with trading and don't forget a stops ;)
Sasalex_fx
Sunday, 17 July 2011
Welcome
Welcome to my freshly created blog!
My goal is to post some thoughts on potential FX trade opportunities as well as current trades that I am taking (as close to real-time as I can). Please note that FX trade caries a significant risk of loss and by no means I intend to take any responsibility of anyone's actions. All posts are mine and only mine thoughts and do not present a trade recommendations of any kind. Feel free to post your comments and suggestions ONLY related to FX. All other forms of abuse of this topic will be deleted from a comments log...
You can also follow me on Twitter @ sasalex_fx
Best regards,
Sasalex_FX
My goal is to post some thoughts on potential FX trade opportunities as well as current trades that I am taking (as close to real-time as I can). Please note that FX trade caries a significant risk of loss and by no means I intend to take any responsibility of anyone's actions. All posts are mine and only mine thoughts and do not present a trade recommendations of any kind. Feel free to post your comments and suggestions ONLY related to FX. All other forms of abuse of this topic will be deleted from a comments log...
You can also follow me on Twitter @ sasalex_fx
Best regards,
Sasalex_FX
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)