Tuesday, 23 August 2011

How to chicken-out from a perfect set-up?!

The following is a classic example of not following some simple rules in trading and how to miss a perfectly valid trade!
Last night XAGUSD graph showed a huge divergence in RSI giving away an excellent setup for a short trade following a major bonanza in gold purchasing. On top of everything, there was a significant gap in price in relation with 200 moving average price (yellow line on graph).
I’ve entered a short trade at 43.95 at opening of Asian session hoping that price may unfold downwards. Within first hour of trade price went down to 43.70 where I decided to move stop-loss at break-even (+2). I got kicked out of that trade pretty soon and decided to go to sleep without setting-up a new trade. I thought that new day session may be quite volatile and that my potential stop a little higher than previous day-high would be wiped-away with a reasonable amount of certainty.
Another think that may be a relaxing circumstance for me not stay in a trade is fact that not very often Asia session drives to a major turnaround - its market usually follow the previous (mad) flow or at least float in a "range" ... at least that were my thought, voices of "reasoning" of not to follow my indicators and very strong gut instinct on it!

I do not need to explain how that whole setup had unfolded – just look at the graph!
It doesn’t matter how many times one has to convince himself/herself to trust your trade – same mistakes may be repeated in no time. I am keeping this one in quite significant place with another one happened recently with drop in USD against Swiss Franc. That one had a perfect setup, almost immaculate execution at 0.71 (almost at a rock-bottom) but part of (short) trade remained in game wiping-out roughly 30% of my potential gain! But that’s another story....
Be well and trade safe,

Sasalex_fx

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