Gold vs. AUDUSD

Check out a correlation in a price movement between AUDUSD and Gold ... It looks like gold is lagging slightly Aussie meaning that it may be used as the additional (risk) indicator as long as relation remains valid.

AU short @ 1664 (27.09.11)

Possible breakthrough on intersection of 200 & 50 EMA line (15 min chart).
Stop above daily high....

Braking of 50 EMA would signal a further drop in AU while closing above 1680 would open a further retracement to a 200 EMA (cca. 1720).

EURGBP and EURCAD (21.09.11)

Closing on the upper triangle area where shorts may be convenient given risk ratio. If line holds, that would be a 4th attempt to brake it since Sep.9, opening a high probability to test Sep. low and maybe to go down even further. While BOE is hinting a possible stimulus to UK economy, a whole EUR  picture is far worst than potential impact that £ printing may have on this pair. I am personally favoring a downside on this pair with potential resistance areas @ .877, .883 and .888 (Aug. high).
Current position: short from .874
Shorts pending @ .8765 and .8797
Stop placed @ .883

Congestion between 50 and 200 SMA on 60 min chart may signal a top in place and move downwards. Daily closure above 200SMA may signal a reversal upwards. I am currently fading C$ data from 1.3652 and 1.3685 (if it gets hit) - stop at 1.3727.

Updated EURCAD chart as of 17:23 GMT - first stop triggered, next one is @ 1.3769:

This run should be due to a correction... leaving one lot still in place while having 75 pip loss on the first one.
EURGBP short open from 0.8765 with stop @ 0.8814 (open target). First short stopped with 50 pip loss.
Update2: I've just noticed that EURCAD advance got stopped at 38.2% fibo-retracement, just at my stop point!!! 

AUDNZD

In case you’ve been wondering why I am posting AUDNZD analysis so frequently -

The reason I am banging at the same AUDNZD drum is that is hitting (now) a very important channel support line starting back to 2004!!! Yes, 2004!!! Its upper channel has been hit 3 times (as you can see on a weekly chart)

Back to a current situation - Aussie is expected to reach 1.235 or hit lower vs. NZD while confirming a divergence on a daily chart to enter a long.

Fake push through 50day SMA negated change of a trend as it remains “down”.

Check out a weekly range mentioned in my previous posts at http://tinyurl.com/3os5l55  and even mid-July analysis notes in http://tinyurl.com/5vgaad6 (that are still valid) for a clues on critical prices and weekly up trend support line.

So the bottom line is that I would stay away from long entry given current climate on the market and until "double-bottom" is confirmed on a daily chart that is some 100 pips away from a current price. Will follow up on these thoughts later in a week if/when anything significant happens...

Las/thist week update

Haven't posted anything last week due to a massive volatility (read: CB's interventions, rumors etc.) so no reliable technicals have crossed my mind. I did entered in few scalps, mostly versus Euro and gold that worked out pretty well but nothing significant beside it. I'll be back when any mid-term planning gives me a reason...
Currently I am short EUR vs. CAD and USD with huge stop area (1.35 for Cad trade and 1.3734 in USD trade)...don't have a good short-term feelin' 'bout that but will see (entered late in a game :( )

EURCAD 700 pip trade

It's not very often to execute an almost perfect trade....here is the one that happened recently (opened 26/08 and closed today):

EURUSD Weekly

Weekly closure is to remain above 1.37 in order for bullish pattern to remain intact.

Current price has just hit 200 day MA line that I am expecting to hold for this week (a few hours left). I am biased toward price correction next week towards 1.41-.42 level technically that remains to be seen how US market is about to open at Monday. 

Hourly chart shows that pair is heavily oversold but absence of divergence may suggest that bottom may be bellow 1.37 (rather within 1.363 - .37).

AUDNZD - Sep.2011

Latest Aussie advancement against NZD may confirm that 1.23 bottom from Aug.09 is confirmed. Bullish pattern is unfolding as long as daily closure above 1.26 is preserved (breakout of bearish channel line).

Hi all, I've been away from trading (hollidays) so nothing new has been posted within last 2 weeks. In a mean time, I got (via twitter) this interesting strategy from Boris Schlossberg: How To Pick Tops and Bottoms in FX that I want to share with whoever may be interested:

Here is a short outline from video:
1. Let the price go through at least 1 Ideally 2 levels
2. Buy/Sell in Zones Bellow/Above 50 or 00 Once the Move has been made
3. Buy market in zones 35-40 or 75-80
4. Sell market in zones 60-65 and 20-25
5. Limit @ +20, Stop @ -30

Good luck in trading,

sasalex_fx