AUDNZD update (19.Oct.2011)

AUDNZD ascending channel remains intact. Any correction within 1.275-1.28 are should be used as long entry with stop in 1.26, target 1.32. Also day and lower interval charts are showing the overbuy territory so long entry should be followed with RSI around 50 with tendency on lower intervals (4 and 1 hour) to go higher.

GBPJPY (Oct.2011)

Here is one pair that has just caught my attention (that I have never actually traded)... Long term weekly chart shows price inability to break bellow 118 level since the beginning of 2009 and currently sits at 122.

Daily chart shows that current price has hit 50 day EMA where some short term resistance may move price down towards 121 area.

While medium term pattern shows potential bullish channel, short term shows a price divergence that is clearly visible on 4h and 60 min chart.

Short term trading plan (description related to a 60 min chart): Sell within first 2 hours of European trade session if price holds between 122-122.50 and RSI stays within descending RSI line. Stay short as long as Stochastic (slow) slope is moving downwards and RSI remains between 45-50. Change position to long if lower ascending channel is reached (cca. 121) and previous 2 conditions are satisfied. Longer bias is for price to go north... Happy trading :) Note: Similar pattern is observed in AUDJPY and NZDJPY pairs but I would be reluctant to go short @ Monday due to a recent jump in risk. If commodities are down and risk is aversion kicks-in that these two pairs may provide a even better opportunity for short (correction) considering a recent price spike...

AUDNZD

After 1.235 support that prevented further AUD decline vs. Kiwi, price has rebounded up from Sep.19 and reached first significant resistance @ 1.285. 300 pip advance from 04.Oct may find some correction down to 1.27 but upward trend is expected to continue.

Weekly pattern shows that a long term ascending channel remains intact and from purely technical angle, the expectation is to go higher to test 2011 highs. First weekly resistance point is around 1.32 where, if price fails to brake, would create a head-and-shoulder pattern opening further weakness in this pair.

Short term. - as said earlier, I will be a buyer at around 1.27-.275 area following a confirmation on RSI and Stoch (slow) indicators. Also, for further upside to hold, I am expecting 200EMA to hold within 50 pips range on 60 min chart. Current setup (60min) shows a slight divergence on RSI that may be a very short term sell signal with target of 100 pips of the current price @ 1.2845, but will see if this trade still holds after the beginning of euro-session opening. I am looking to at least one hit at the top of 1.285 to hold before placing that trade.