AUDNZD Mid-Sep

Resistance lines are crossing 1.255-265 where another pullback upwards may be expected.
100SMA on 1hr chart is acting as a temporary resistance...

NZDCAD - Mid-Sep.2012

NZDCAD may be a good candidate for a early Asia session entering short @ 0.806 with a stop @ 0.811and potential target @ 0.8 and 0.796 respectfully.
The reasoning behind this trade are the following:
@ Daily chart, 200SMA looks defended at last two daily attempts providing a reasonable resistance point for at least a temporary pullback down.Also this pair have never conquered more than 190 pips in a 4-day running strike in 2 years (160 pips in recent run last week) that is another indicator that gives me a confidence in this trade, at least on a short term basis.

Hourly chart shows rather a exhaustion on the latest run upwards from a beginning of September (see RSI at chart) that is another indicator that tells me 0.805 may posses a pretty decent resistance level:

Watch for a rebound close to 200SMA @ 1hr chart!

USDMXN - Mid-September

USDMXN - As previous USDMXN long setup has failed, the next potential long entry is at 12.55 (0.618 fib retracement from 2012 high and 2011 low):

While this trade may present a short-term opportunity, a long term bias is bearish due to a recent QE3 Fed announcement!
I will be watching 1 hour chart at the end of Monday.16.Sep and Tuesday.17th to enter a trade expecting a short term correction to test 13-13.5 level that will present a first resistance point.

USDMXN Long Entry - Aug.2012

Back in March.2012 I wrote a post about potential of MXN going higher against US$ that did pay-off quite substentialy. It looks like a new cycle may be on the horizont within next 2-3 days given support line dating back from 07.2011:

AUDCAD July-Aug.2012

Last post back in Feb.2012 worked quite well (cca. 800 pips). I am hoping that this time analysis should perform quite well to. Given the end of a month and divergence (8hr. chart) it is reasonable to expect a price drop down to .38 fib retracement or even further down to 1.02 area. There are two things to watch:
a) performance of individual currencies against US$
b) support line starting from mid-March 2011 and full retracement down to 0.996

Short term:

Week of 30.07-03.08.12: Looking for a short entry from 1.055 with 50 pip risk if RSI remains under 67.7 on that new high. Those willing to go for 100 pip risk may enter at about current highs (1.0505) at Monday Asia opening. Objective 1.033 and 1016.

Alternative:

Look for a next drop between previous high and low for a long entry:

Mid-July analysis

NZDUSD:
0.806 July high is expected to hold as long as no QE is in game. I am expecting a down channel to continue with potential short entry just bellow 0.80 and stop at 0.81.

AUDUSD:
Not quite clear pattern as in NZDUSD... 1.032 July high price should hold for the next 2 weeks giving a potential short opportunities at 1.023 and/or 1.028. There is also possibility of a sideways price action within 1.01-1.03 where any breakout (daily closing) bellow and/or above those prices may give a trend for the August price direction.

 
GBPUSD:
Another fake breakout at Friday may cause some price consolidation around 1.56 area before continuing further down towards 1.53

EURGBP:
EURGBP is hitting a .618 fib retracement from 2007 low to 2008 high. It is reasonable to expect that .778 will present itself as tough support opening a possibility to retest .50 fib at 0.817. There may be some short term scalping opportunities from 0.78 (buy) and that price action should be followed on a smaller time-frame (1hr and less).

USDJPY:
There is potential head-and-shoulder pattern forming on a daily chart favoring further upside on USD side as long as price remains above 78.3. Potential huge risk-reward ratio on long entries around 79.00....

USDCAD:
"Loonie" is retesting .50 fib retracemet from a June high which may present an opportunity to go long with a target above July high (cca 50 pip stop). Another line of support is 1.005.

GBPCAD:
.50 fib retracement may present a decent "buy" opportunity with a stop @ 1.5585.

Triple-Top formation

Not that I usually do post any technical analysis example - but here is one that have just caught my attention...
Few weeks ago someone laughed on a meaning of a triple-top technical formation so here is just an illustration of one TTF to show its meaning in conjunction with RSI divergence. It's up to you to judge if this scenario is a n laughable matter:

EURUSD - mid-May

There is a short-term resistance @ 1.29 from which we may see a temporary pullback (short-squeeze) to up to 1.303 - .3085. Long term outlook remains bearish down to 1.26 that presents a quite significant resistance for this pair price.

CADJPY - mid-May

Drop from 84.8 recent high is fading away on 0.382 fib retracement from 2011 Apr.2011 high - Oct.2011 low. 80.08 acts as a short term resistance point which, if broken, may see a price continuation to a new 2012 highs...

79.00 may be used as a short term support point.

AUDNZD - mid-May

Back some 6 weeks ago, I posted the article on this blog about importance of 75 months support line in AUDNZD (see here). That line hold once again when price bounced back from 11.April 1.255...

Moving down to 1hr time-frame - it's obvious that price has moved upwards in the ascending channel since that bounce happened (dashed yellow line).

I am personally looking for a long entry at about 1.267 which may be present a good risk-reward opportunity, depending how price action may unfold @ Monday. If (daily) close bellow ascending support line, we may have a scenario of retesting the that 75 months line at around 1.258 by the end of this month. The other line of interest is a descending line from mid-March.2011. If that line is broken within next 2 weeks (daily close above), I will be rather comfortable with ascending price continuation for this pair for another few weeks/months...will see....
Note: Comments expressed in this blog are exclusively my personal views for a planning of my future trades and are not representing any recommendations for anyone's trades but mine. Please use your own judgement in establishing your trading plans.

Cable - mid-May

By hitting a peak at the end of April @ 1.627, Cable showed once again its seasonality behavior (reaching tops or bottoms at the beginning or the end of months. It's been a steady decline even since the beginning of May.2012... This pair is about a 60 pips away from 1.600 that, beside being a "round number" (place where most trading orders and stops is happening), it's also hitting the ascending Bullish support line dating back from the beginning of Jan.2012. That point is also a 50% fib retracement between 2011 high and Jan.2012 low giving additional significance to that price.

I am looking for a bullish setup as long as daily resistance line holds. I am also expecting some choppiness in price action between 1.59& 1.605 since price rather rarely jumps of its support line right away. Look for 1hr price action for a right entry and stop positioning...

EURUSD 22.04.2012

Bounce to a new high...

Day Chart (triangle):

Update 23.042012 21:45 CET EURUSD trend remains up on a daily closing ascending channel:

AUDNZD - 75 months in ascending line...

Here is a fact that should not be ignored:

March high-low fibo-levels...

AUDJPY

AUDUSD

EURAUD

EURCAD

EURGBP

EURUSD

GBPUSD

NZDUSD

USDCAD

USDJPY

GBPUSD March.2012

GBPUSD sharp advance from a pivotal point has ended up almost at a pip on 0.382 fibo-line from which some consolidation may be seen at Monday down to 5795-5750. It has also gone to 75 RSI from where this pair almost always goes down 30-50 pips or down bellow 50 RSI before continuing further up or reversing a 1hr trend. Support remains on 200DMA line.

EURUSD March. 2012 (cont.)

While Euro successfully rebounded last week from 1.30, a general pattern remains bearish. I am expecting 1.32 and 1.33 to be tested next week while break above Feb high 1.35 opens the last line of defense at 200DMA to be tested.
Daily close bellow 1.30 leaves wide open exposure of 1.26 to be tested after which the only significant price is 2010 low.
Short term - EUR bullish up to 1.33-36 where dips from 55DMA may be bought (1.31 @ Monday, if reached) while long term outlook remains bearish.   

USDMXN Long on raising wedge March.2012

Stop @ 12.90

Update 18.03.2012
After breaking long raising wedge, USD continues to make a further losses against MXN.
While 12.60 remains a price of rather strong support, area of interest for a potential short entries is 12.73 - 12.95, depending on what time-frame trade is targeted. Daily trend remains bearish as long as price remains bellow 200DMA.  
Long entries may be triggered from the March low @ 12.55-60 with stops bellow daily lows that may give quite substantial risk/reward ratio....