Sunday, 29 July 2012
USDMXN Long Entry - Aug.2012
Back in March.2012 I wrote a post about potential of MXN going higher against US$ that did pay-off quite substentialy. It looks like a new cycle may be on the horizont within next 2-3 days given support line dating back from 07.2011:
Friday, 27 July 2012
AUDCAD July-Aug.2012
Last post back in Feb.2012 worked quite well (cca. 800 pips). I am hoping that this time analysis should perform quite well to. Given the end of a month and divergence (8hr. chart) it is reasonable to expect a price drop down to .38 fib retracement or even further down to 1.02 area. There are two things to watch:
a) performance of individual currencies against US$
b) support line starting from mid-March 2011 and full retracement down to 0.996
Short term:
Week of 30.07-03.08.12: Looking for a short entry from 1.055 with 50 pip risk if RSI remains under 67.7 on that new high. Those willing to go for 100 pip risk may enter at about current highs (1.0505) at Monday Asia opening. Objective 1.033 and 1016.
Alternative:
Look for a next drop between previous high and low for a long entry:
a) performance of individual currencies against US$
b) support line starting from mid-March 2011 and full retracement down to 0.996
Short term:
Alternative:
Sunday, 15 July 2012
Mid-July analysis
NZDUSD:
0.806 July high is expected to hold as long as no QE is in game. I am expecting a down channel to continue with potential short entry just bellow 0.80 and stop at 0.81.
AUDUSD:
Not quite clear pattern as in NZDUSD... 1.032 July high price should hold for the next 2 weeks giving a potential short opportunities at 1.023 and/or 1.028. There is also possibility of a sideways price action within 1.01-1.03 where any breakout (daily closing) bellow and/or above those prices may give a trend for the August price direction.
GBPUSD:
Another fake breakout at Friday may cause some price consolidation around 1.56 area before continuing further down towards 1.53
EURGBP:
EURGBP is hitting a .618 fib retracement from 2007 low to 2008 high. It is reasonable to expect that .778 will present itself as tough support opening a possibility to retest .50 fib at 0.817. There may be some short term scalping opportunities from 0.78 (buy) and that price action should be followed on a smaller time-frame (1hr and less).
USDJPY:
There is potential head-and-shoulder pattern forming on a daily chart favoring further upside on USD side as long as price remains above 78.3. Potential huge risk-reward ratio on long entries around 79.00....
USDCAD:
"Loonie" is retesting .50 fib retracemet from a June high which may present an opportunity to go long with a target above July high (cca 50 pip stop). Another line of support is 1.005.
GBPCAD:
.50 fib retracement may present a decent "buy" opportunity with a stop @ 1.5585.
0.806 July high is expected to hold as long as no QE is in game. I am expecting a down channel to continue with potential short entry just bellow 0.80 and stop at 0.81.
Not quite clear pattern as in NZDUSD... 1.032 July high price should hold for the next 2 weeks giving a potential short opportunities at 1.023 and/or 1.028. There is also possibility of a sideways price action within 1.01-1.03 where any breakout (daily closing) bellow and/or above those prices may give a trend for the August price direction.
GBPUSD:
Another fake breakout at Friday may cause some price consolidation around 1.56 area before continuing further down towards 1.53
EURGBP is hitting a .618 fib retracement from 2007 low to 2008 high. It is reasonable to expect that .778 will present itself as tough support opening a possibility to retest .50 fib at 0.817. There may be some short term scalping opportunities from 0.78 (buy) and that price action should be followed on a smaller time-frame (1hr and less).
There is potential head-and-shoulder pattern forming on a daily chart favoring further upside on USD side as long as price remains above 78.3. Potential huge risk-reward ratio on long entries around 79.00....
"Loonie" is retesting .50 fib retracemet from a June high which may present an opportunity to go long with a target above July high (cca 50 pip stop). Another line of support is 1.005.
.50 fib retracement may present a decent "buy" opportunity with a stop @ 1.5585.
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