Sunday, 15 July 2012

Mid-July analysis

NZDUSD:
0.806 July high is expected to hold as long as no QE is in game. I am expecting a down channel to continue with potential short entry just bellow 0.80 and stop at 0.81.
AUDUSD:
Not quite clear pattern as in NZDUSD... 1.032 July high price should hold for the next 2 weeks giving a potential short opportunities at 1.023 and/or 1.028. There is also possibility of a sideways price action within 1.01-1.03 where any breakout (daily closing) bellow and/or above those prices may give a trend for the August price direction.
 
GBPUSD:
Another fake breakout at Friday may cause some price consolidation around 1.56 area before continuing further down towards 1.53
EURGBP:
EURGBP is hitting a .618 fib retracement from 2007 low to 2008 high. It is reasonable to expect that .778 will present itself as tough support opening a possibility to retest .50 fib at 0.817. There may be some short term scalping opportunities from 0.78 (buy) and that price action should be followed on a smaller time-frame (1hr and less).
USDJPY:
There is potential head-and-shoulder pattern forming on a daily chart favoring further upside on USD side as long as price remains above 78.3. Potential huge risk-reward ratio on long entries around 79.00....
USDCAD:
"Loonie" is retesting .50 fib retracemet from a June high which may present an opportunity to go long with a target above July high (cca 50 pip stop). Another line of support is 1.005.
GBPCAD:
.50 fib retracement may present a decent "buy" opportunity with a stop @ 1.5585.

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